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Global LNG Marginality Index

A structured view of marginality and competition in the global LNG market.


The Global LNG Marginality Index (GLMI) provides insight into how global LNG supply is allocated across regions, and which markets are setting the margin at any given time.


GLMI is designed to support analysis of regional competition, flexibility, and allocation dynamics through interpretable signals, contextual events, and supporting features.

Overview​

GLMI focuses on who sets the marginal LNG price, rather than where prices move.


It addresses questions such as:


  • Which region is currently marginal for LNG supply?
  • How competitive is the global LNG system?
  • Are allocation dynamics tightening or easing?
  • How stable is the current marginal structure?

GLMI is not a price forecast. It provides context around allocation and competition, not directional price signals. It is a research and context tool, not a trading signal.

Interpretation Guide​

GLMI is designed to provide context around global LNG marginality and competition between regions. It should be interpreted alongside regional prices, freight dynamics, and observed flow behaviour.

Reading elevated marginality​

Elevated GLMI readings indicate heightened competition for marginal LNG supply, where small changes in availability or demand can influence regional outcomes. In such conditions, allocation decisions tend to be more sensitive and outcomes more asymmetric.

This does not imply immediate price direction. It reflects who is setting the margin, not where prices must move.

Reading low marginality​

Lower readings indicate looser global LNG conditions, where supply availability and logistical flexibility reduce competition between regions. In these environments, regional markets may behave more independently.

Changes through time​

Changes in GLMI readings can signal shifts in marginal supply setting, often around seasonal demand changes, commissioning or outages of liquefaction or regasification capacity, or changes in freight economics.

Relationship to events​

GLMI Events provide discrete context around developments that affect marginality, such as supply disruptions, infrastructure constraints, or shifts in trade flows. These events help explain transitions in competitive dynamics.

Use within a broader framework​

GLMI is most effective when used as part of a global LNG analysis framework, alongside regional pricing, shipping data, and infrastructure visibility.

Data notes (October 2026)​

  • Cross-basin flows only. Trade-flow columns count only flows between basins; intra-basin IEA border flows are no longer counted (for example, 2025 EU inbound fell from 587.1 bcm to 186 bcm). Net flow, scores, labels, events and the backtest are unchanged.
  • Known limitation: Russia sits in ASIA_PAC. In the IEA pipeline-trade mapping, Russia is in the ASIA_PAC exporter basin, and every IEA ASIA_PAC row is a Russian flow. The ASIA_PAC trade-flow columns therefore describe Russian pipeline exports, not Asia-Pacific LNG. The headline score (EU regasification and US export share to Asia) does not read these columns. Moving Russia to its own basin would require a pre-registered model change and a replay.
  • Spread rows are re-levelled. The daily run re-levels JKM-TTF spread rows up to 215 days back when the IMF monthly anchor arrives or is revised.
  • EU regasification utilisation is capacity-weighted (total sendout over total capacity) since 28 September 2026.
  • US liquefaction capacity is 129.73 MTPA (it was previously over-summed).

Explore GLMI further​

To explore GLMI in more detail: