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Weather Storage Shock Index

A structured view of weather-driven shocks relative to expectations.


The Weather Storage Shock Index (WSSI-US) highlights deviations between expected and realised weather outcomes, surfacing short-term disruptions to energy systems.

Overview​

WSSI-US focuses on unexpected weather outcomes rather than prevailing regimes.


It addresses questions such as:


  • Are weather outcomes deviating from expectations?
  • How significant are recent deviations?
  • Are shocks clustering or dissipating?

WSSI-US is designed to capture surprise, not structure.

Interpretation Guide​

WSSI-US is designed to highlight weather-driven shocks relative to expectations or norms. It should be interpreted alongside forecasts, realised outcomes, and prevailing market positioning.

Reading elevated shocks​

Elevated WSSI-US readings indicate weather outcomes that differ meaningfully from expectations, often introducing short-term stress or relief into energy systems. In such environments, markets may react quickly as assumptions are revised.

This does not imply sustained trends. It reflects unexpected deviations, not structural change.

Reading low shock conditions​

Lower readings indicate weather outcomes broadly in line with expectations. In these periods, weather is less likely to be a primary driver of near-term market volatility.

Changes through time​

The clustering or persistence of shocks can be informative, particularly when repeated deviations occur in the same direction. Isolated shocks, by contrast, may dissipate quickly.

Relationship to events​

WSSI-US Events provide discrete markers around notable forecast errors or realised deviations. These events help frame periods where weather becomes a dominant short-term driver.

Use within a broader framework​

WSSI-US is most effective when used alongside regime context, balance indicators, and positioning, helping distinguish noise from genuinely disruptive weather outcomes.

Explore WSSI-US further​

To explore WSSI-US in more detail: